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The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.
As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.
The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.
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“Our role as a regulator is not to stand in the way of innovation, but to help create the certainty and confidence needed for innovation to flourish responsibly,” Mizzi said.
The charter does not create new regulatory obligations and was designed to complement legislation including the EU AI Act and GDPR.
Instead, it proposed a risk-based approach. It suggested lighter controls on use cases such as coding assistants, but strong checks on customer-facing functions, particularly those involving fraud and responsible gambling.
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He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.
“The debate about prohibition will remain open in the country for the next few years,” he said. “It will be an institutional debate between the Supreme Court, Congress and the executive branch.
Durigan did not indicate that the government would prohibit the activity.
