La Romantica

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Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.

Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).

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The proposal also established criteria for risk classification of products and clarifying the obligations of operators and platforms. The measure would likely grant the illegal market the opportunity to continue expanding, as it would be unaffected by the new rules. The committee approved a request for urgency for analysis by the Senate Plenary.

Authored by Senator Damares Alves and six other senators, Bill 2.470/2026 amends the Betting Law, which regulates fixed-odds betting, with measures aimed at protecting mental health, consumers, and the family economy. The bill received a favourable opinion, in the form of a substitute from Senator Alessandro Vieira. 

“This is a non-partisan initiative. It stems from society’s current understanding of the extent of the damage caused by so-called betting,” the rapporteur stated.

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